Power and Politics in Today’s World

Course site, by Ian Shapiro.

Lecture 2: From Soviet Communism to Russian Gangster Capitalism

Gorbichev’s tenure

Gorbichev was president for ’85 to ’91.

Gorbichev’s reforms

• Perestroika: Restructuring of the Soviet Economy.
• Glasnost: Free speech. More media companies, allowed to criticise the soviet union.

Coup of ’91

• Coup by senior Communist Party members.
• Gorbichev ousted.
• Yeltsin stood asgainst the coup.
• Military sided with Yeltsin.
• This was when the communist party fell, and power transitioned to the Russian Parliment.

Final days of Soviet Union

Berlin wall came down, several members suceeded, a failed coup attempt, and gain of power by the Russion Parliment.

Reasons for the fall of the SU

1. Unsustainable system: Command economy didn’t work.
2. Containment: West focussed on making sure the SU didn’t expand, so just had to wait for it to fall.
3. Investment in Afghanistan: SU didn’t want Islamic Fundamentalism to rise in its Asiatic constituents.

Why was collapse peaceful?

Exit, Voice, and Loyalty

Exit, voice (advocate for change), and loyalty (change it yourself): The three things you can do when a state/organisation starts to fail. Which one you select depends on the cost.

Reasons

• Beliefs of the elites: They didn’t believe in the public ideology of the communist party. Thus, no loyalty.
• Reduced costs of exit: E.g. Yeltsin becoming president of Russia.
• Reduced economic costs of exit: E.g. KGB had offshore accounts, theft of state assets, shorting the ruble.

Signs of a weak state

• Inability to tax: E.g. Russia didn’t have the capacity to check profits, so they taxed exports.
• Haphazard use of power: To discourage disobeying the state where they don’t have the capacity to enforce.

Reliance on oil

• Makes up ~40% of the government’s income.
• Leads to corruption: The only way to get rich is to have access to oil, those who control access can extract large bribes.
• No incentive to diversify: incumbents like it this way, Russia is too weak to extract taxes, geopolitical power as other states depend on Russia’s oil.

Lecture 3: Advent of a Unipolar World: NATO and EU Expansion

Three lenses on politics

Interests, institutions, and ideals.

Operation Desert Storm

US helping Kuwait against Iraq’s invasion. Went pretty well: was proportional & last resort.

UN

United Nations. Formed in 1945 with 51 members, now at 198. Largely peaceful.

NATO

North Atlantic Treaty Organisaton. Formed in 1949 with 12 members, now at 31. Most famous article is Article 5: If any NATO country is attacked, they act as if they have all been attacked.

Relationship between UN and NATO wrt. Article 5

Resolution of an Article 5 depends on the UN being able to assure stability.